Market Insight Dave Dubbin July 20, 2026
The former Mr. Christie bakery lands at 2150 Lake Shore are the biggest development story in Etobicoke: 28 acres at Park Lawn and Lake Shore, a master plan for roughly 7,500 homes, and a proposed GO station at the centre of it. Here's the honest status. The master plan is approved in principle, the first phase is still working through approvals with no construction date, and the GO station has no confirmed opening. Meanwhile the site is hosting a circus, which tells you everything about where the timeline sits.
Own a condo in Humber Bay Shores and wondering what the site next door means for your value? Request a free valuation here.
The 2150 Lake Shore lands are the last big undeveloped parcel in Humber Bay Shores, vacant since the Mr. Christie bakery closed. First Capital and Pemberton Group are behind the redevelopment, with a master plan from Allies and Morrison, the same firm involved in the Carpet Factory proposal we covered in Liberty Village. The city approved the Christie's Secondary Plan in 2021, setting the ground rules for what can be built here.
The vision is a complete neighbourhood rather than a row of towers: dozens of buildings across six phases, roughly 7,500 homes, retail, office space, new streets, a park, two public squares and a covered galleria. The Mr. Christie water tower stays, as a nod to the site's cookie baking past. Tower heights have shifted between filings, reaching into the 70 storey range at the tallest, which would make this one of the densest new communities anywhere in the west end.
The proposed Park Lawn GO station is the piece that matters most for property values in this pocket, with a Metrolinx business case pointing to nearly 5,000 daily riders and a ride downtown in under 15 minutes. It has cleared real hurdles and reached permit stage design work, but it has no confirmed opening date. We've written a full breakdown in our Park Lawn GO station post, including what it would mean for each side of the buy and sell equation.
The first phase, centred on a new station square at the Park Lawn end of the site, was first filed in 2022 and has been refined through resubmissions since. It remains in the approvals process with no construction timeline in place. For anyone keeping score, the original ambition had the first buildings and the GO station open by 2026. Approvals, market conditions and construction economics had other plans, a story playing out across the city right now, and one we wrote about in our post on Canada building fewer homes.
The upside of a stalled timeline: Cirque du Soleil's LUZIA is running under the Big Top on the site through August 30. If you want the full rundown on the show and how to make an evening of it on the waterfront, that's in our LUZIA post. Tickets are on the Cirque du Soleil site.
For current Humber Bay Shores owners, the long game is favourable. A GO station next door and a finished mixed-use neighbourhood with shops and public space would address the two knocks on the area, the commute and the thin street retail. The flip side is thousands of new units arriving in phases over many years, which adds supply to a condo market that already gives buyers plenty of choice. For buyers, none of this is priced as a sure thing yet, and the timeline is long. Buy the neighbourhood as it is today, and treat the master plan as upside rather than a guarantee.
More on what's being built in our end of the city:
Thinking about buying or selling in Humber Bay Shores while the neighbourhood's next chapter takes shape? Reach out to the team here.
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