Is the Toronto Real Estate Market Finally Turning a Corner? April 2026 Market Update

Market Insight Dave Dubbin May 23, 2026

Is the Toronto market finally turning a corner? April 2026's numbers made the strongest case yet. Put plainly: more buyers, fewer listings, and prices finding a floor. Everything below is date-stamped to TRREB's April Market Watch, released May 5, because market posts should tell you when their numbers were true.

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What the numbers said

GTA sales reached 5,946 in April, up 7 percent from a year earlier and the second straight month of year-over-year gains. New listings dropped 9.3 percent to 17,097 and total active listings fell 6.4 percent to 25,110, so demand rose while supply shrank, the classic setup for tightening. The average selling price came in at $1,051,969, still down 4.9 percent year over year but up meaningfully from March on a seasonally adjusted basis, and the HPI benchmark of $944,100 was essentially flat month over month. Translation: the annual numbers still show the correction, but the monthly numbers show it ending.

A decade of context

Today's market makes more sense with the last ten years on one table:

Year	Average GTA price	What happened
2016	~$730,000	The last calm year
2017	~$822,000	Surge, then the Fair Housing Plan cooled it
2020	~$930,000	Pandemic ignites demand
2021	~$1,095,000	First year over $1M; record 121,000+ sales
2022	$1,300,000+ at peak	Spring top, then rate hikes bite
2026 (April)	$1,051,969	Correction bottoming, activity returning

Freehold homes: the 416 and 905 are different markets

GTA detached homes averaged $1,372,688 in April, down 4.1 percent year over year, but that headline hides a real divide. In the 416, detached averaged roughly $1,668,973, down just 1.9 percent, with sales up 6.6 percent and the sales-to-new-listings ratio climbing from 36 to 40 percent, that ratio being sales divided by new listings, where above 40 starts leaving buyer's market territory. City semis were the strongest segment anywhere: prices actually rose 1.5 percent while new listings fell more than 21 percent. The 905 told a softer story, detached down closer to 5 percent with an SNLR near 33. Freehold townhouses averaged about $939,000 GTA-wide, down 6.6 percent, with enough supply to keep buyers negotiating.

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The condo market: opportunity with eyes open

Condos absorbed the deepest correction of any segment, and April showed both halves of that story. Sales jumped 9.1 percent year over year, the strongest volume gain of any property type, while GTA prices averaged about $636,000, down 6.3 percent and roughly 18 percent below the early 2022 peak near $779,000. Nearly one in four April condo sales landed between $400,000 and $599,999, the clearest signal yet that first-time buyers are stepping back in. One caution: not all condos are equal. Small investor-grade units in oversupplied downtown towers face the most headwinds, while well-located units near transit in Etobicoke, the west end and midtown are holding up better. Check reserve funds, maintenance fees, and owner-occupancy before falling in love.

The broader picture

The Bank of Canada's overnight rate held at 2.25 percent through the spring, and while fixed mortgage rates remain above pandemic-era lows, they sit meaningfully below the 2023 peaks. Meanwhile, GTA population growth continues to outrun new construction, building a medium-term supply deficit that supports prices over time. Those two forces, cheaper money than the worst of it and structurally short supply, are the floor under this market.

What this means for you

The April data described a market in transition, not collapse and not liftoff. For sellers, the 416 is tightening faster than headlines suggest, and pricing to recent comparables is the entire game, since overpricing means sitting, and sitting means negotiating from weakness. For buyers, waiting for a universally confirmed bottom has a cost: by the time everyone agrees it happened, the leverage is gone. Windows like this reward preparation and decisiveness, in that order.