The February 2027 Renewal: What Your 2022 Etobicoke Mortgage Will Actually Cost

If you signed a mortgage in February 2022, your renewal lands in February 2027, and the number on that letter is going to be bigger than the one you have been paying. How much bigger depends entirely on which mortgage you took. A five-year fixed at 3.04% is looking at roughly 11% more per month. A five-year variable that started at 1.45% is looking at about 36% more than the payment you first set up, though only about 7% more than what you are paying today. And if you took a variable with a fixed payment and never touched it, the jump is over 50%.

Here is the actual arithmetic, worked on a $700,000 Etobicoke mortgage.

Renewal is also the moment people decide whether to stay put or move. If that is on the table, knowing what your place is worth today is step one. Get a valuation.

What February 2022 actually looked like

Worth setting the record straight, because memory compresses this. In February 2022 the Bank of Canada was still at 0.25% and prime sat at 2.45%, where it had been since March 2020. The under 2% mortgages everyone remembers were variable, not fixed. Tangerine was advertising a five-year variable at 1.45%, which is prime minus 1.00. Five-year fixed that same month was materially higher: TD's special was 3.04%, CIBC was at 3.02%, RBC at 3.19%.

Three weeks later, on March 3, 2022, the first hike landed. Prime went to 7.20% by July 2023 before the cuts began, and it has sat at 4.45% since October 2025.

The setup

One property, two borrowers, same day. $700,000 mortgage, 25-year amortization, February 2022. One takes the 3.04% fixed. One takes the 1.45% variable at prime minus 1.00 and rides the whole cycle. Both renew in February 2027 with 20 years of amortization left, at 4.24%, which is the lowest posted five-year fixed among the big banks as of late August 2026. Insured borrowers are seeing closer to 3.94%.

Where each one lands

Our calculation. Fixed rates compounded semi-annually, variable monthly, per standard Canadian practice. Prime rate path per Ratehub's published history. Rates checked August 30, 2026. Your balance, amortization and rate will differ, but the shape of the result will not.

The variable borrower's five years, in one picture

Monthly payment on a $700,000 variable mortgage at prime minus 1.00, payment adjusted at each prime change.

The part nobody expects

Look at the interest row again. The borrower who took 1.45% paid $147,962 in interest over five years. The one who took 3.04% and felt overcharged at the time paid $98,407. The cheap mortgage cost roughly $49,500 more.

That is what happens when you win the first eleven months and lose the next forty-nine. The 1.45% was never a five-year price, it was a floating price that happened to start low. Economists call this basis risk, meaning the risk that the thing your payment is tied to moves against you. Prime moved 475 basis points against that borrower in sixteen months.

None of which makes fixed the right answer in advance. Over most five-year windows in Canadian history variable has come out ahead, and the 2022 to 2023 tightening was the fastest in forty years. The point is narrower: the rate on the page at signing is not the cost of the mortgage. The cost is the path.

If renewal is on your mind, these three are worth ten minutes:

• Renewing Your Mortgage in 2026: The 120-Day Playbook
• Fixed or Variable in Late 2026: How to Choose Before the September 2 Rate Decision
• The Mortgage Stress Test in 2026: What It Is and What It Costs You

If your payment never moved, read this twice

Some lenders sold variable mortgages with a fixed monthly payment. The rate floated, the payment did not, and the split between principal and interest quietly shifted. On our $700,000 example the payment covered the interest only up to about 4.77%. That borrower's rate crossed 4.95% in late October 2022, roughly the ninth payment of the term.

Past that point the mortgage stops shrinking. Over five years this borrower paid off $11,004 of a $700,000 loan. The fixed borrower paid off $101,219. Same house, same five years, a $90,000 gap in equity.

In practice most lenders stepped in when borrowers hit that trigger point and required a higher payment, a lump sum, or a conversion, so the full untouched version above is the worst case rather than the typical one. If nobody ever called you, though, check your balance today rather than assuming. February 2027 is when the lender re-amortizes you over the remaining schedule and the whole adjustment arrives in one month.

Three levers, and what each one costs

Shop the renewal. Since November 21, 2024, OSFI no longer requires uninsured borrowers to requalify at the stress-test rate on a straight switch to a new lender, as long as the loan amount and the amortization stay the same. That rule still stands in 2026. It is the single biggest change to your negotiating position in a decade, because your current lender's first offer is no longer effectively the only one you can take. Insured borrowers already had this. The catch is in the words "straight switch": add a dollar or stretch the amortization and you are requalifying.

Stretch the amortization. Going back to 25 years instead of 20 drops the fixed borrower from $3,693 to $3,228, a saving of $465 a month. It also adds five years of interest. This is a cash flow tool, not a savings tool, and it is worth using deliberately rather than by default.

Shorten the term. A three-year or two-year fixed lets you re-price sooner if the Bank of Canada resumes cutting. You usually pay a little more for the shorter term. What you are buying is optionality, the right to change your mind in 2029 rather than 2032.

What would change this

The Bank of Canada has held at 2.25% through six consecutive decisions, with the next one on September 2, 2026. Markets are largely pricing another hold. But fixed mortgage rates key off Government of Canada bond yields rather than the overnight rate directly, so a rally in bonds could move your renewal number without the Bank doing anything at all. Between 3.25% and 4.75% there is about $464 a month of difference on this mortgage, which is the range you are actually exposed to.

What this means if you are thinking about selling instead

Renewal forces a decision that people otherwise defer. Some of the Etobicoke homeowners we are talking to are looking at the new payment and asking whether the house still fits, which is a reasonable question and not a distress signal. Worth knowing what you are walking into: TRREB reported a GTA average selling price of $1,003,956 in July 2026, down 4.5% year over year, on 14,484 new listings, which was 17.8% fewer than a year earlier. Fewer competing listings helps a seller. A softer price level does not.

The counterpoint to selling is straightforward. Moving costs real money in land transfer tax, legal fees and commission, and if the alternative is $366 more a month, the math for staying is usually stronger than it feels at the kitchen table. Run both before you decide.

We are not mortgage brokers and none of the above is financial advice. Talk to a broker or your lender about your actual numbers.

Send us your balance, your renewal date and your current rate, and we will run your specific payment at today's rates alongside what your place would likely sell for, so you can see both options side by side on one page. If staying put is the better call, we will tell you that. Book a call.

Dave Dubbin
Etobicoke Real Estate Expert
Dave Dubbin & Associates
Real Estate Broker for Etobicoke and Toronto
Sotheby's International Realty, Canada