Rates Held Again: What the Bank of Canada's September Decision Means in Etobicoke

Market Insight Dave Dubbin September 9, 2026

The Bank of Canada left its policy rate at 2.25 per cent on September 2, 2026. For Etobicoke, the short answer is that nothing about your borrowing costs changed this week, and that is the point. Variable rates stay where they are, prime stays at 4.45 per cent, and the fixed rates that actually price most Etobicoke mortgages were never going to move on this announcement anyway.

Trying to work out what you can carry at today's rates? Talk to us and we will walk through the numbers on a specific property.

What the Bank actually said

The rate stayed at 2.25 per cent, with the Bank Rate at 2.5 per cent and the deposit rate at 2.20 per cent. That is the seventh decision in a row without a change. The Bank pointed to second-quarter growth that came in stronger than expected, headline inflation running near 3 per cent on higher energy prices, and new US tariffs plus Canadian counter-measures following the breakdown of trade talks. Underlying price pressure, in the Bank's reading, is still contained.

Read that as a central bank that does not think it needs to cut and does not want to hike. When inflation is sitting at the top of the comfort range because of oil rather than because of the domestic economy, the usual move is to wait.

What a hold touches, and what it does not

If you have this	What the September hold did
Variable-rate mortgage	Nothing. Prime stays at 4.45 per cent, so your rate and payment are unchanged.
HELOC or line of credit	Nothing. These track prime too.
Fixed-rate mortgage or a rate hold	Nothing directly. Fixed rates follow bond yields, which move on inflation and growth expectations, not on the overnight rate itself.
A renewal coming up	Nothing this week, but it confirms the rate you renew into is unlikely to be dramatically lower than today's.
A pre-approval	Nothing. The stress test is unchanged: you qualify at your contract rate plus 2 per cent, or 5.25 per cent, whichever is higher.

The number that matters more than the announcement

Most Etobicoke buyers we work with are on a five-year fixed, and what they feel is the monthly payment. Here is what each half point costs on a 25-year amortization, at $100,000 borrowed and at $700,000 borrowed, which is roughly a Kingsway semi with 20 per cent down or a Humber Bay two-bedroom with a small down payment.

Rate	Per $100,000	On $700,000
3.99%	$525	$3,678
4.49%	$553	$3,870
4.99%	$581	$4,067
5.49%	$610	$4,269

Calculated at 25-year amortization with Canadian semi-annual compounding. Illustration only, not a quote. Your rate depends on your lender, term and file.

Half a point on $700,000 is close to $200 a month. Over a five-year term that is roughly $11,500. That is the real stake in the rate conversation, and it is why shopping the mortgage matters more than guessing the Bank's next move.

If a rate decision has you rethinking your plan, start here:

What this means for the Etobicoke fall market

Stable rates take one excuse off the table for both sides. Buyers who have been waiting for cheaper money have now watched seven decisions go by without it. Sellers who have been waiting for a rate cut to lift their price are waiting on something the Bank has shown no urgency to deliver.

Meanwhile the supply side is doing something. GTA new listings in August were down 14.1 per cent from a year earlier, and the average selling price was $993,410, off 2.7 per cent. Softer prices with much thinner inventory is an unusual combination, and it does not normally last. Either listings return and prices keep drifting, or listings stay scarce and the price declines stop.

The counterpoint

The case against acting on any of this is straightforward. The Bank flagged tariffs and energy prices as things that could push inflation above 3 per cent and force a hike. If that happens, fixed rates go up before the overnight rate does, and anyone holding a rate today looks smart. The case on the other side is that the trade situation resolves, energy settles, and the Bank has room to cut into 2027, which would make today's five-year fixed look expensive by 2028.

Nobody gets to know which. What you can do is hold a rate while you shop, because a rate hold costs nothing and caps your downside for 90 to 120 days.

Looking at what is on the market in Etobicoke right now? Browse current listings and we will help you separate the ones worth seeing.

Dave Dubbin
Etobicoke Real Estate Expert
Dave Dubbin & Associates
Real Estate Broker for Etobicoke and Toronto
Sotheby's International Realty, Canada